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Affiliation |
Graduate School of Engineering Science Center for Crossover Education |
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Laboratory Address |
Riko 3rd Bldg. #108, Akita University, 1-1 Tegata Gakuen Machi, Akita 010-8502, Japan |
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Mail Address |
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NAKAO Atsushi
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Research Interests 【 display / non-display 】
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Geodynamics
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Plate tectonics
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Subduction zone
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Data assimilation
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Numerical simulation
Graduating School 【 display / non-display 】
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2008.04-2012.03
University of Tsukuba School of Life and Environmental Sciences College of Geoscience Graduated
Graduate School 【 display / non-display 】
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2014.04-2017.03
Tokyo Institute of Technology Graduate School, Division of Science and Engineering Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Doctor's Course Completed
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2012.04-2014.03
Tokyo Institute of Technology Graduate School, Division of Science and Engineering Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Master's Course Completed
Degree 【 display / non-display 】
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Tokyo Institute of Technology - Doctor of Science
Campus Career 【 display / non-display 】
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2023.04-Now
Akita University Graduate School of Engineering Science Center for Crossover Education Assistant Professor
External Career 【 display / non-display 】
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2024.04-2025.03
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Research Institute for Marine Geodynamics Visiting Researcher
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2023.05-2024.03
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Research Institute for Marine Geodynamics Visiting Researcher
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2021.04-2023.03
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology Volcanoes and Earth's Interior Research Center, Research Institute for Marine Geodynamics Postdoctoral Researcher
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2021.01-2021.03
The University of Tokyo Earthquake Research Institute Project Researcher
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2019.09-2020.10
The University of Hong Kong Department of Earth Sciences Post-doctoral Fellow
Academic Society Affiliations 【 display / non-display 】
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2017.07-Now
United States
American Geophysical Union
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2014.10-Now
Japan
The Seismological Society of Japan
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2010.05-Now
Japan
Japan Geoscience Union
Research Areas 【 display / non-display 】
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Natural Science / Solid earth sciences / Geodynamics, Seismology, Data Science
Qualification acquired 【 display / non-display 】
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First Kind of High School Teacher License
Thesis for a degree 【 display / non-display 】
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Roles of water in subduction zone dynamics and mantle chemical evolution
Atsushi Nakao
2017.03
Single author
Research Achievements 【 display / non-display 】
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Estimating the Source of Floating Pumice Found near Torishima Island, Japan: A Back-Tracking Drift Simulation Approach
Kuwatani, T., Nishikawa, H., Tanaka, Y., Watanabe, H., Tada, N., Nakao, A., Tamura, Y., and Ono, S.
ESS Open Archive 2024.09
Research paper (journal) Domestic Co-author
disaster prevention. However, this is difficult because they are hidden under water. Near Torishima Island in the Izu Islands, Japan, intensified seismic activity was observed during October 2023, including a mysterious tsunami-triggering earthquake on October 8 (UTC), which was considered to be linked to a volcanic activity. On October 20, 2023, aerial surveys confirmed an 80-km stretch of floating pumice near Torishima Island. This study conducted a Lagrangian back-tracking drift simulation using the ocean current data and surface wind data to trace the origin of the pumice while clarifying the theoretical basis of Lagrangian back-tracking from the Bayesian perspective. Results indicate that the pumice drifted southward from around extensional back-arc basins near Myojinsho Reef and Sumisujima Island approximately 3–5 days before its discovery. These findings are consistent with independent observations such as biological traces and the geochemical characteristics of sampled floating pumice, which is considered identical to that found on October 20 by an airplane. This indicates the presence of unknown volcanic activity around back-arc basins west of the major active volcanic zone. This study demonstrates the utility of combining drift simulations with geochemical and biological data to identify the sources of marine volcanic events, particularly in regions where direct observations are limited. The results of this study contribute to our understanding of volcanic mechanisms and their potential hazards.
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Adjoint-based marker-in-cell data assimilation for constraining thermal and flow processes from Lagrangian particle records
Nakao, A., Kuwatani, T., Ito, S., & Nagao, H.
Earth and Space Science Open Archive 2024.05
Research paper (journal) Domestic Co-author
Geophysical problems often involve Lagrangian particles that follow surrounding flows and record information about the system, such as the pressure and temperature path recorded in metamorphic rocks. These Lagrangian particles can be useful for constraining unknown parameters, such as their sources and the thermal and flow processes of the surrounding fluid. To use information about Lagrangian particles to constrain unknown parameters about the surrounding fluid in an inverse manner, we have developed a 4D-Var (four-dimensional variational) data assimilation for thermal convection in a particle-grid coupled system. Here we consider particles advected in a thermally convecting, highly viscous fluid that mimics geochemical tracers in the Earth’s mantle, and estimate time series of thermal and velocity fields only from the particle records, focusing on their high traceability in the laminar flow. We present preliminary 4D-Var results using a sufficient amount of synthetic particle position and velocity data. The 4D-Var run achieves a 60-Myr time reversal of thermal convection with a horizontal wavelength of 6,000 km, without using any temperature data. For smaller scale convection, the cost function tends not to decrease well, but with a shorter retrospective time domain or a large weight on early stage information, the reconstruction improves. While this work focuses on mantle dynamics, our framework has the potential to constrain thermal, flow, and mixing processes in any other laminar flow containing Lagrangian particles that record useful information.
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Adjoint-based data assimilation for reconstruction of thermal convection in a highly viscous fluid from surface velocity and temperature snapshots
Nakao, A., Kuwatani, T., Ito, S., & Nagao, H.
Geophysical Journal International 236 ( 1 ) 379 - 394 2024.01 [Refereed]
Research paper (journal) Domestic Co-author
It is a general problem in geoscience to estimate the time-series of velocity and temperature fields for a fluid based on limited observations, such as the flow velocity at the fluid surface and/or a temperature snapshot after flow. In this study, an adjoint-based data assimilation method (also known as four-dimensional variational data assimilation) was used to reconstruct the thermal convection in a highly viscous fluid (e.g., Earth’s mantle) to investigate which observations constrain the thermal convection and how accurately the convection can be reconstructed for different wavelengths. The data assimilated to the adjoint-based model were generated synthetically from forward models with convecting cells of different length-scales. Based on the surface velocity and temperature snapshot, our simulations successfully reconstructed thermal convection over 50 Myr in the case that the wavelength of the convective cells is sufficiently large. We obtained two main results from this parametric study. (1) When we only considered instantaneous thermal structure fitting in the cost function, the convection reconstruction tended to fail. However, there are some cases where the laminar thermal convection can be reconstructed by assimilating only the velocity along the fluid surface. (2) There is a limit to the reconstruction of thermal convection in the case that the convecting cells are small (∼1,000 km for a 50 Myr reconstruction). We propose that (1) is related to the balance of forces due to the thermal buoyancy and viscous stress around the thermal anomalies, and (2) is related to how information is preserved (i.e., how the previous thermal structure is maintained in the observable state throughout the convection process). The results enable the use of geological records to estimate time-series of velocity and temperature in Earth’s deep interior, even though the records may only contain information from shallow parts of Earth.
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Regression analysis and variable selection to determine the key subduction-zone parameters that determine the maximum earthquake magnitude
Nakao, A., Kuwatani, T., Ueki, K., Yoshida, K., Yutani, T., Hino, H., & Akaho, S.
Earth, Planets and Space ( Springer Nature ) 75 78 2023.05 [Refereed]
Research paper (journal) Domestic Co-author
Large variations in the maximum earthquake magnitude (Mmax) have been observed among the world’s subduction zones. There is still no universal relationship between Mmax and a given subduction-zone parameter, such as plate age, plate dip angle, or plate velocity, which suggests that multiple parameters control Mmax. Here we conduct exhaustive variable selections that are based on three evaluation criteria; leave-one- out cross-validation errors (LOOCVE), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to determine the combination of subduction-zone parameters that best explains Mmax. Multiple linear regression analyses are applied using 18 subduction-zone parameters as potential candidates for the explanatory variables of Mmax. The minimum BIC is obtained when five variables (trench sediment thickness, existence of an accretionary prism, upper-plate crustal thickness, bending radius of the subducting oceanic plate, and trench depth) are selected as explanatory variables; each variable contributes positively to Mmax. Minimum LOOCVE and AIC values are obtained when eight variables (the five parameters for BIC, plus the along- strike plate convergence rate, age of the subducting plate, and maximum depth of the subducting plate) are selected. Our selection of the trench sediment thickness and plate bending radius contributing to Mmax is consistent with previous studies. The results show that increasing upper-plate crustal thickness results in a large Mmax. In addition to smoothing the subducting-plate interface via subducted sediments, along- dip extension of the crustal area along the convergent plate boundary would be important for generating a large earthquake.
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Subduction-zone parameters that control behavior of subducted oceanic plates at the 660-km depth boundary revealed by logistic regression analysis and model selection
Nakao, A., Kuwatani, T., Ueki, K., Yoshida, K., Yutani, T., Hino, H., & Akaho, S.
Frontiers in Earth Sciences ( Frontiers ) 10 2022.10 [Refereed]
Research paper (journal) Domestic Co-author
The potential mechanisms that drive the behavior of subducted oceanic plates at the 660-km discontinuity are subject to debate. Here we conduct logistic regression analysis and model selection to determine the key subduction-zone parameters in natural subduction zones that discriminate the plate behavior along the discontinuity. We select the key variables based on three information criteria: leave-one-out cross-validation score (LOO), Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Among the 17 subduction-zone parameters analyzed, only the trench velocity, convergence rate, and trench width are selected in the simplest model that minimizes BIC. The thermal parameter and several other variables are also selected to minimize AIC and LOO. Our results suggest that a stagnant slab occurs along the 660-km discontinuity when there is a narrow oceanic plate and a retreating trench in natural subduction zones, which has also been modeled in previous numerical simulations. Neither the stress nor the deformation rate of the upper-plate margin is selected in the three optimal models, which suggests that back-arc spreading in natural subduction zones does not globally characterize plate behavior at the 660-km discontinuity, although back-arc spreading and a stagnant slab coincide in some numerical simulations. The combination of subduction-zone data analysis and numerical simulations will therefore provide deep insights into the dynamics of Earth’s deep interior.
◆Original paper【 display / non-display 】
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research 【 display / non-display 】
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Modeling of mantle evolution and geochemical tracers
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
Project Year： 2022.04 - 2025.03 Investigator(s): Atsushi Nakao
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Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
Project Year： 2014.04 - 2017.03 Investigator(s): Atsushi Nakao
Presentations 【 display / non-display 】
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熱対流復元のための粒子-セル系データ同化
中尾篤史, 桑谷立, 伊藤伸一, 長尾大道
日本地球惑星科学連合2024年大会 (千葉市) 2024.05 - 2024.05
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Data assimilation for reconstructing mantle thermal convection with geochemical tracers
Nakao, A., Kuwatani, T., Ito, S., & Nagao, H.
Water-Rock Interaction WRI-17/ Applied Isotope Geochemistry AIG-14 (Sendai) 2023.08 - 2023.08
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Reconstruction of mantle thermal convection using adjoint-based data assimilation
Nakao, A., Kuwatani, T., Ito, S., & Nagao, H. [Invited]
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2023 (Chiba) 2023.05 - 2023.05
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Relationship between maximum earthquake magnitudes and subduction-zone parameters revealed by multiple regression analysis and exhaustive variable selection
Nakao, A., Kuwatani, T., Ueki, K., Yoshida, K., Yutani, T., Hino, H., & Akaho, S. [Invited]
Asia Oceania Geoscience Society 19th Annual Meeting (Online) 2022.08 - 2022.08
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The importance of the measurement process in super-resolution and a toy model analysis of the back-projection
Yutani, T., Kuwatani, T., & Nakao, A.
Japan Geoscience Union Meeting 2022 (Chiba) 2022.05 - 2022.05